The original article was published on the Organization for World Peace site on March 12, 2018. The original article can be read at https://theowp.org/reports/artificial-intelligence-and-social-disruptions/.
Introduction
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning have emerged to become a major social issue over the past decade. While anxiety over AI has been around since at least when Arthur C. Clark wrote the novel Space Odyssey in the 1960s that featured HAL 9000, it is only recently that genuine AI has become possible in reality. The application of AI to real-life tasks has led to a change in the perception of threat from AI from initial fears of an AI rebellion and extinction of the human race to the more “mundane” concerns of rising unemployment and social inequality. While not as dramatic as discussions about the fate of humankind, it is difficult to overstate the disruption that AI can cause to activities for which humans have taken for granted. On the other hand, advances in AI promises great leaps in human understanding of science and society, which may even include AIs aiding in fending off the other great threats to human existence. Whatever form it may take, the AI revolution promises to greatly destabilize established norms, and for better or worse in the short term, the world is in for a rough ride.
The AI Revolution
Computers and automation are not new, but artificial intelligence is. The terms “computer”, “automation”, and “AI” are often used interchangeably by the media when discussing this issue. The Merriam-Wester Dictionary defines artificial intelligence as “1. A branch of computer science dealing with the simulation of intelligent behavior in computers or 2. The capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior”.A computer is, at its core, a glorified calculator that can only carry out commands programmed by humans. Automation is merely replacing a task that was previously conducted by humans with machines. An AI, however, can perform beyond the bounds of its programming and reach conclusions from the data given to it as well as acquiring new data in the process. An illustrative example of the difference between AI and automation is the AI Alpha Go that beat the world GO champion Lee Sedol. By analyzing of gathered data from its previous experiences of playing against the champion, could develop the best strategies to counter Lee based on patterns it extracted from its data. What Alpha Go did not do was to rely on a set of moves that programmers put into the computer for it to make its decision.This is in contrast to Deep Blue, the chess-playing computer from the 1990s. That computer relied on brute-force calculations of existing data with limited capacity to learn and adapt. Modern AIs are evolving entities that like humans can learn from their experiences and makes subsequent decisions based on available data.
Artificial Intelligence and Society
AIs that can make decisions will, at least theoretically, change how society functions. The most immediate of these likely changes is the loss of jobs both in the industrialized and in the developing economies. Studies conducted in the United States and other industrialized countries predict that almost 50% of all current jobs will be made extinct due to AI by 2020s.1 What is more worrying is that it is predicted the emergence of AI will wipe out currently high skilled and therefore high paying jobs such as stock-brokers, economists, and accountants, and some doctors,2 significantly reducing the paths of upward social mobility in society. What is surprising is that even jobs that require creativity such as fashion designers, artists, and writers; that are commonly believed to be best able to resist automation, are vulnerable to replacement by AIs.3 It turns out artistic genius and the human sense of aesthetics is not so much a “creative spark” that ignites the imagination but can be deduced from consumption patterns and quantifiable data. At this point, the question has become “what jobs will be safe from AI”, which, like artificial intelligence itself, not even experts have a concrete answer for.
Concurrent with the replacement of the human workforce by AI, there will be winners from the AI Revolution. Currently many experts believe that AIs will worsen the current socio-economic inequalities, which some observers believe are already fuelling popular discontent across the industrialized and in the developing countries. The cost of research and development for AI is high, and only the wealthiest individuals and corporations can afford to invest in it. Once AI technology has reached the commercialization stage, benefits will overwhelmingly accrue to those that already possess the resources to build and employ the technology, usually large corporations and wealthy individuals.4 This process exacerbates social instability, and would paralleling the instability that swept the newly industrialized nations in the 19th century with movements such as the Luddites and the dispossed.These movements would eventually cumulate in the radical ideologies of the mid-20th century that saw war and much bloodshed across the world.
Given the already alarming gap between the elites and the populace and the popular reaction against this wealth gap that has manifested in the form of the rising popularity of radical politicians, AIs threaten to place this trend into overdrive. The AI Revolution taken to its logical conclusion will lead to the creation of a permanent technocratic elite and a massive unemployed population that will be severely lacking in opportunity for social mobility. It will wipe out personal and economic freedoms that most people in the industrialized countries have come to take for granted, leading to further social unrest and instability that would place the well-being of millions in jeopardy.
Why We Need Artificial Intelligence
However, after the doom and gloom of loss of jobs and the potential destruction or obsolescence of humans, AIs do benefit humanity. One of the most important contributions that AI technology can make is to the struggle to combat and adapt to climate change. The Ais’ advantages over humans in data processing capabilities allow AIs to discern patterns and identify solutions much faster than humans with traditional methods can. Improvements in AI has allowed researchers to identify areas where significant amounts of waste are generated and where such inefficiency can be reduced, with assistance from the big data processed by AI that would not be possible otherwise. More idealistically, the belief in the relative impartiality of AIs can potentially motivate people into action in an age when trust in human leaders and institutions is at an all-time low. The implementation of AI to combat climate change and improve sustainability bears promise and just might save human society from even more catastrophic disruptions than that of loss of jobs and social inequality.
The Future
AI promises to radically change how humans live and work, and even how humanity views its place in the world. Many experts and analysts fear that the disruptions threatening to be unleashed by the AI revolution will cause further social instability by exacerbating inequality and increase joblessness. On the other hand, AI promises great improvements just might help humanity survive the damages from rapidly changing climate. It is difficult to predict whether humanity as a whole will come out of the AI revolution better or worse off; or even how these subjective terms are measured. However, it is likely things will get worse before they get better. Economists estimated in the aftermath of the First Industrial Revolution, it took 40 years before wages rose back to pre-industrial levels. Industrialism and scientific advances also give rise to “scientific” ways of social organization that was used to justify systematic racism and totalitarianism that had caused millions of deaths through the 20th century. Today, it is not hard to see how abusing AI and similar technologies can further entrench human prejudices and lead to social injustices rather than alleviate it. How to minimize the social fallout from the expected AI revolution will be the greatest challenge to politicians and policymakers in the 21st century.
Bibliography
“A Study Finds Nearly Half of Jobs Are Vulnerable to Automation.” The Economist, April 24, 2018. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/24/a-study-finds-nearly-half-of-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-automation.
CBC Radio. “Automate This! How AI Technology Could Disrupt Nearly Half of All Jobs — and International Politics.” CBC, September 8, 2017. https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/episode-354-miami-preps-for-irma-automating-your-job-the-safest-nfl-helmet-che-guevara-s-brother-and-more-1.4276099/automate-this-how-ai-technology-could-disrupt-nearly-half-of-all-jobs-and-international-politics-1.4276126.
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【Listen To Me】20171212 | CCTV-4, 2017. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqlBd7ZawQs.
Mahroum, Sami. “The AI Debate We Need.” Project Syndicate, February 16, 2018. https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai-debate-we-need-by-sami-mahroum-2018-02.
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